There have been increasing indications that there is likely to be a major El Niño event this year. A week ago scientists from the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that we are in an El Niño event, reporting that:
El Niño has arrived, it’s getting stronger, and it’s not about to go away soon. And already there are rumblings that this could be a big one. El Niño in Australia means warmer temperatures, and sometimes, but not always, drier conditions.
In 2014, some climatologists thought a big El Niño
might have been on the cards. Ultimately, after some vigorous early
warming in the Pacific, conditions only touched on El Niño thresholds.
This year, with an event already established, climatologists are
suggesting the odds are rising of an El Niño rivalling the record events
of 1982 and 1997. [read the full article here].
In The Conversation today CSIRO and UNSW researchers pointed to indications that the 2015-2016 El Niño event will be a major one:
The anticipation is growing that this year’s newly formed El Niño will turn out to be very big. All climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are currently predicting a strong event later this year.
In terms of intensity and the growth rate up to July, the 2015 El
Niño is second only to corresponding time of the 1997 event, and looks
set to outpower the 1982 event. However, the eventual intensity of the
2015 El Niño is still hard to predict. What seems more certain is a La
Niña in 2016.
For Australia, the extent and strength of the impact of the 2015 El
Niño to a large extent depends on whether there is a concurrent positive
Indian Ocean Dipole. In 2014, there was no positive Indian Ocean
Dipole. To date, most models
are predicting a positive dipole this year, raising the prospect of a
strong El Niño preceded by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and followed
by a La Niña event – exactly as occurred in 1982-84 and 1997-99
For Australia, the impacts of this sequence could be significant, as
attested by the devastating Ash Wednesday bushfire in 1983 over southern
Australia and the floods that hit the country’s northeast in early
1984.[read the full article here].
All of this suggests that we are in for a bad fire season, after some years of very little fire activity in the Helidon Hills.
If you haven't already done your fire season preparations now is definitely the time to do them. And if you are a smokespotter, make sure you have your compass handy as well as your list of phone numbers for Coordinators.
Showing posts with label wildfire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wildfire. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Friday, August 15, 2014
A worsening fire outlook and a 50% chance of an El Nino developing in September
It looks more and more like we are heading into a bad bushfire season.
In our end of the Helidon Hills (Vinegar Hill locality, 5km north of Gatton in the edge of teh Hills) it has been the driest January to June period of the last seven years (we've only been keeping records that long).
In the three months to the end of June we had only 77mm, and in July we had only 2mm. Quite a few mature trees are showing patches of dead leaves.
In fact the southern two-thirds of Queensland has experienced an extended period of drier than normal conditions according to the 2014 North Australia Bushfire Seasonal Outlook (this link opens a pdf of the report from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC).
According to the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook "Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology along with recent observations continue to indicate El Niño is likely (70 per cent chance) to develop later this year." - suggesting a dry summer and high bushfire risk.
As of the end of July the areas of Above Normal Bushfire Potential for the 2014/20 bushfire season had already been assessed for northern and central Queensland with fairly large areas being rated as having above normal potential. Regions of South East and Western Queensland south of latitude S25º were scheduled to be assessed during the Southern Australia Bushfire Season workshop in August.
I'm not sure whether or not that assessment has yet been released, but the ABC has published an article this week which predicts that Queensland could be in for one of its worst bushfire seasons in five years. Here's some of what they said:
"The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has shown a 50 per cent chance of El Nino weather patterns starting in September, which could potentially see increased fire danger periods, increased fire incidents and an extended fire season. During the last El Nino weather event in 2009, there were 16,000 vegetation fires - a 30 per cent increase compared to the 12,5000 fires seen in an average season. The prediction came as the state launched its official bushfire season today - about three weeks earlier than usual.
"This weather pattern would mean above average temperatures and below average winter/spring rainfall which would result in increased grass and forest fuel loads," Mr Johnson said. He said people in high danger areas need to have an emergency plan in place. Currently, more than 60 per cent of the state is drought declared, and very dry and hot conditions are creating ideal conditions for fire. Since April, more than 4,900 hazard reduction burns covering in excess of 421,000 hectares have been performed."
Read the whole article here. I'll keep an eye out for the Above Normal Bushfire Potential for southern Queensland and will post a summary here when I see it.
A couple of days ago I posted an article on our blog about living with and understanding fire risk. Some time in the next few weeks I'll post something there on our strategy for preparing with and dealing with fire - we are in the process of concurrently updating our strategy and putting it into effect.
In our end of the Helidon Hills (Vinegar Hill locality, 5km north of Gatton in the edge of teh Hills) it has been the driest January to June period of the last seven years (we've only been keeping records that long).
In the three months to the end of June we had only 77mm, and in July we had only 2mm. Quite a few mature trees are showing patches of dead leaves.
In fact the southern two-thirds of Queensland has experienced an extended period of drier than normal conditions according to the 2014 North Australia Bushfire Seasonal Outlook (this link opens a pdf of the report from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC).
According to the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook "Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology along with recent observations continue to indicate El Niño is likely (70 per cent chance) to develop later this year." - suggesting a dry summer and high bushfire risk.
 |
| Chances of exceeding the Mean Maximum Temperature [Bushfire Seasonal Outlook Report] |
I'm not sure whether or not that assessment has yet been released, but the ABC has published an article this week which predicts that Queensland could be in for one of its worst bushfire seasons in five years. Here's some of what they said:
"The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has shown a 50 per cent chance of El Nino weather patterns starting in September, which could potentially see increased fire danger periods, increased fire incidents and an extended fire season. During the last El Nino weather event in 2009, there were 16,000 vegetation fires - a 30 per cent increase compared to the 12,5000 fires seen in an average season. The prediction came as the state launched its official bushfire season today - about three weeks earlier than usual.
"This weather pattern would mean above average temperatures and below average winter/spring rainfall which would result in increased grass and forest fuel loads," Mr Johnson said. He said people in high danger areas need to have an emergency plan in place. Currently, more than 60 per cent of the state is drought declared, and very dry and hot conditions are creating ideal conditions for fire. Since April, more than 4,900 hazard reduction burns covering in excess of 421,000 hectares have been performed."
Read the whole article here. I'll keep an eye out for the Above Normal Bushfire Potential for southern Queensland and will post a summary here when I see it.
A couple of days ago I posted an article on our blog about living with and understanding fire risk. Some time in the next few weeks I'll post something there on our strategy for preparing with and dealing with fire - we are in the process of concurrently updating our strategy and putting it into effect.
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