There have been increasing indications that there is likely to be a major El Niño event this year. A week ago scientists from the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that we are in an El Niño event, reporting that:
El Niño has arrived, it’s getting stronger, and it’s not about to go away soon. And already there are rumblings that this could be a big one. El Niño in Australia means warmer temperatures, and sometimes, but not always, drier conditions.
In 2014, some climatologists thought a big El Niño
might have been on the cards. Ultimately, after some vigorous early
warming in the Pacific, conditions only touched on El Niño thresholds.
This year, with an event already established, climatologists are
suggesting the odds are rising of an El Niño rivalling the record events
of 1982 and 1997. [read the full article here].
In The Conversation today CSIRO and UNSW researchers pointed to indications that the 2015-2016 El Niño event will be a major one:
The anticipation is growing that this year’s newly formed El Niño will turn out to be very big. All climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are currently predicting a strong event later this year.
In terms of intensity and the growth rate up to July, the 2015 El
Niño is second only to corresponding time of the 1997 event, and looks
set to outpower the 1982 event. However, the eventual intensity of the
2015 El Niño is still hard to predict. What seems more certain is a La
Niña in 2016.
For Australia, the extent and strength of the impact of the 2015 El
Niño to a large extent depends on whether there is a concurrent positive
Indian Ocean Dipole. In 2014, there was no positive Indian Ocean
Dipole. To date, most models
are predicting a positive dipole this year, raising the prospect of a
strong El Niño preceded by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and followed
by a La Niña event – exactly as occurred in 1982-84 and 1997-99
For Australia, the impacts of this sequence could be significant, as
attested by the devastating Ash Wednesday bushfire in 1983 over southern
Australia and the floods that hit the country’s northeast in early
1984.[read the full article here].
All of this suggests that we are in for a bad fire season, after some years of very little fire activity in the Helidon Hills.
If you haven't already done your fire season preparations now is definitely the time to do them. And if you are a smokespotter, make sure you have your compass handy as well as your list of phone numbers for Coordinators.
Showing posts with label smokespotters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label smokespotters. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Bushfire burn-off targets to be replaced with risk-based strategy in Victoria
Nice to see some common sense being applied to bushfire risk reduction in Victoria.
Land most at risk of dangerous bushfires will be targeted for burning during the off-season under a new risk-based strategy for Victoria's fuel reduction burns.
The new policy would dump the existing program of 5 per cent burning of public land every year, which was recommended by a royal commission in the wake of the Black Saturday bushfires.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bushfire-burnoff-targets-to-be-replaced-with-riskbased-strategy-20150521-gh6mif.html
Friday, August 15, 2014
A worsening fire outlook and a 50% chance of an El Nino developing in September
It looks more and more like we are heading into a bad bushfire season.
In our end of the Helidon Hills (Vinegar Hill locality, 5km north of Gatton in the edge of teh Hills) it has been the driest January to June period of the last seven years (we've only been keeping records that long).
In the three months to the end of June we had only 77mm, and in July we had only 2mm. Quite a few mature trees are showing patches of dead leaves.
In fact the southern two-thirds of Queensland has experienced an extended period of drier than normal conditions according to the 2014 North Australia Bushfire Seasonal Outlook (this link opens a pdf of the report from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC).
According to the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook "Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology along with recent observations continue to indicate El Niño is likely (70 per cent chance) to develop later this year." - suggesting a dry summer and high bushfire risk.
As of the end of July the areas of Above Normal Bushfire Potential for the 2014/20 bushfire season had already been assessed for northern and central Queensland with fairly large areas being rated as having above normal potential. Regions of South East and Western Queensland south of latitude S25º were scheduled to be assessed during the Southern Australia Bushfire Season workshop in August.
I'm not sure whether or not that assessment has yet been released, but the ABC has published an article this week which predicts that Queensland could be in for one of its worst bushfire seasons in five years. Here's some of what they said:
"The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has shown a 50 per cent chance of El Nino weather patterns starting in September, which could potentially see increased fire danger periods, increased fire incidents and an extended fire season. During the last El Nino weather event in 2009, there were 16,000 vegetation fires - a 30 per cent increase compared to the 12,5000 fires seen in an average season. The prediction came as the state launched its official bushfire season today - about three weeks earlier than usual.
"This weather pattern would mean above average temperatures and below average winter/spring rainfall which would result in increased grass and forest fuel loads," Mr Johnson said. He said people in high danger areas need to have an emergency plan in place. Currently, more than 60 per cent of the state is drought declared, and very dry and hot conditions are creating ideal conditions for fire. Since April, more than 4,900 hazard reduction burns covering in excess of 421,000 hectares have been performed."
Read the whole article here. I'll keep an eye out for the Above Normal Bushfire Potential for southern Queensland and will post a summary here when I see it.
A couple of days ago I posted an article on our blog about living with and understanding fire risk. Some time in the next few weeks I'll post something there on our strategy for preparing with and dealing with fire - we are in the process of concurrently updating our strategy and putting it into effect.
In our end of the Helidon Hills (Vinegar Hill locality, 5km north of Gatton in the edge of teh Hills) it has been the driest January to June period of the last seven years (we've only been keeping records that long).
In the three months to the end of June we had only 77mm, and in July we had only 2mm. Quite a few mature trees are showing patches of dead leaves.
In fact the southern two-thirds of Queensland has experienced an extended period of drier than normal conditions according to the 2014 North Australia Bushfire Seasonal Outlook (this link opens a pdf of the report from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC).
According to the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook "Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology along with recent observations continue to indicate El Niño is likely (70 per cent chance) to develop later this year." - suggesting a dry summer and high bushfire risk.
 |
| Chances of exceeding the Mean Maximum Temperature [Bushfire Seasonal Outlook Report] |
I'm not sure whether or not that assessment has yet been released, but the ABC has published an article this week which predicts that Queensland could be in for one of its worst bushfire seasons in five years. Here's some of what they said:
"The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has shown a 50 per cent chance of El Nino weather patterns starting in September, which could potentially see increased fire danger periods, increased fire incidents and an extended fire season. During the last El Nino weather event in 2009, there were 16,000 vegetation fires - a 30 per cent increase compared to the 12,5000 fires seen in an average season. The prediction came as the state launched its official bushfire season today - about three weeks earlier than usual.
"This weather pattern would mean above average temperatures and below average winter/spring rainfall which would result in increased grass and forest fuel loads," Mr Johnson said. He said people in high danger areas need to have an emergency plan in place. Currently, more than 60 per cent of the state is drought declared, and very dry and hot conditions are creating ideal conditions for fire. Since April, more than 4,900 hazard reduction burns covering in excess of 421,000 hectares have been performed."
Read the whole article here. I'll keep an eye out for the Above Normal Bushfire Potential for southern Queensland and will post a summary here when I see it.
A couple of days ago I posted an article on our blog about living with and understanding fire risk. Some time in the next few weeks I'll post something there on our strategy for preparing with and dealing with fire - we are in the process of concurrently updating our strategy and putting it into effect.
Friday, April 11, 2014
Some statistics on this Smokespotter website
I just had to go into the "back" of the website to check on something and noticed the stats counter for the site.
This Helidon Hills Smokespotters website has been online for just over 18 months (since September 2012). In that time there have been 4,509 hits on the site - not bad considering that this is a site serving a relatively small area - maybe 350 square kilometres - with a very low population level (due to the fact that around 9,000 ha is National Park and the remainder is largely rugged country with relatively large properties).
Clearly the site serves a need, but more than that, it shows that the Smokespotter Group serves a need within the larger community.
Personally I think that another statistic is worth mentioning. Over the last 12 months there have been very few reports of smoke in the Helidon Hills. This period includes one of the driest winters and early summers on record, with very high fire danger levels - and during that period there were only a few smoke sightings reported, and these were either outside our area or were of very short duration suggesting a permitted (or at least closely controlled) burn. I think there were probably two reasons for this - first, the community in general took the fire risk very seriously and, second, the presence and effectiveness of the Smokespotter Group have become more widely known and this may have deterred some who could previously have risked burning off on the assumption that they would never get caught.
This Helidon Hills Smokespotters website has been online for just over 18 months (since September 2012). In that time there have been 4,509 hits on the site - not bad considering that this is a site serving a relatively small area - maybe 350 square kilometres - with a very low population level (due to the fact that around 9,000 ha is National Park and the remainder is largely rugged country with relatively large properties).
Clearly the site serves a need, but more than that, it shows that the Smokespotter Group serves a need within the larger community.
Personally I think that another statistic is worth mentioning. Over the last 12 months there have been very few reports of smoke in the Helidon Hills. This period includes one of the driest winters and early summers on record, with very high fire danger levels - and during that period there were only a few smoke sightings reported, and these were either outside our area or were of very short duration suggesting a permitted (or at least closely controlled) burn. I think there were probably two reasons for this - first, the community in general took the fire risk very seriously and, second, the presence and effectiveness of the Smokespotter Group have become more widely known and this may have deterred some who could previously have risked burning off on the assumption that they would never get caught.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Gradually gaining recognition
It is heartening to see that more and more we are being advised of planned light-ups of permitted burns. And not just by individual landowners - corporate and government landowners are beginning to give us advanced warning of light-ups.
This is an important development for a voluntary group like ours, where each smoke sighting can consume the time of lots of people. For an "easy" fire, from the time a Coordinator receives the first notification with a bearing on the smoke to the point of filing it away as one of the following: a permitted controlled burn; a known wildfire; an unreported wildfire; or outside our area of interest, at least three Smokespotters will have been involved for varying periods, and it will have taken around 40 minutes of the Coordinator's time.
A fire that is more difficult to locate (perhaps due to strong winds, smoke haze, or other atmospheric conditions) may have involved both Coordinators for more than two hours, maybe seven or eight Smokespotters, and one or two government agencies.
Obviously, where we have advice of the lighting up of a planned burn, the time and number of people involved is likely to be much less. The more we can achieve this situation, the longer we are likely to keep Coordinators and Smokespotters motivated to be involved in the group. And, equally important, the more accurate we can be in our identification of the source of smoke, which translates into fewer "false alarms" to FireComm and Rural Fire Brigades. Our credibility is the key to obtaining a quick response from the relevant agencies to our identification of unplanned fires.
So, please, encourage your friends, neighbours and employers to give one of the Smokespotter Coordinators a call when they are about to light up a permitted burn. It's not that difficult to give us a call at the same time as they call FireComm to report they are lighting up (which is a condition of the permit).
This is an important development for a voluntary group like ours, where each smoke sighting can consume the time of lots of people. For an "easy" fire, from the time a Coordinator receives the first notification with a bearing on the smoke to the point of filing it away as one of the following: a permitted controlled burn; a known wildfire; an unreported wildfire; or outside our area of interest, at least three Smokespotters will have been involved for varying periods, and it will have taken around 40 minutes of the Coordinator's time.
A fire that is more difficult to locate (perhaps due to strong winds, smoke haze, or other atmospheric conditions) may have involved both Coordinators for more than two hours, maybe seven or eight Smokespotters, and one or two government agencies.
Obviously, where we have advice of the lighting up of a planned burn, the time and number of people involved is likely to be much less. The more we can achieve this situation, the longer we are likely to keep Coordinators and Smokespotters motivated to be involved in the group. And, equally important, the more accurate we can be in our identification of the source of smoke, which translates into fewer "false alarms" to FireComm and Rural Fire Brigades. Our credibility is the key to obtaining a quick response from the relevant agencies to our identification of unplanned fires.
So, please, encourage your friends, neighbours and employers to give one of the Smokespotter Coordinators a call when they are about to light up a permitted burn. It's not that difficult to give us a call at the same time as they call FireComm to report they are lighting up (which is a condition of the permit).
Friday, August 23, 2013
The Fire Season is Here
Looks like the fire season in the Helidon Hills has arrived.
I have started up the daily Fire Danger Rating map (in the box to the right) which is clipped from the official state-wide map released daily - see the links to this elsewhere in this blog.
We have had three fires located by the Smokespotter group this month. Two were controlled burns - we had been notified of the lighting up of these by Private Forestry Services Queensland (a private company contracted to carry out the controlled burns), and they assisted us in confirming that the smoke sightings were in fact their burns. The third was outside of our area of interest, and was around 8km north of the turnoff to the Spring Creek Prison.
The practice of Fire Wardens in our area of adding a note to Fire Permits that the Helidon Hills Smokespotters should be advised at the time of lighting up (when FireComm also needs to be notified) is very much appreciated.
Locating these fires provided a good refresher for the Coordinators (me and KP - see details under the Coordinators above) and a few members of the Smokespotter group.
We are starting the season with a new Smokespotter on a high point in the Iredale area from where he has a good view of a significant part of the Helidon Hills. I delivered his compass last week, as well as another to one of our group on the edge of the Toowoomba range (he had been using a hiking compass till now). These compasses were part of a set of ten new Silva bearing compasses given to the Smokespotters by the Lockyer Valley Regional Council.
I have started up the daily Fire Danger Rating map (in the box to the right) which is clipped from the official state-wide map released daily - see the links to this elsewhere in this blog.
We have had three fires located by the Smokespotter group this month. Two were controlled burns - we had been notified of the lighting up of these by Private Forestry Services Queensland (a private company contracted to carry out the controlled burns), and they assisted us in confirming that the smoke sightings were in fact their burns. The third was outside of our area of interest, and was around 8km north of the turnoff to the Spring Creek Prison.
The practice of Fire Wardens in our area of adding a note to Fire Permits that the Helidon Hills Smokespotters should be advised at the time of lighting up (when FireComm also needs to be notified) is very much appreciated.
Locating these fires provided a good refresher for the Coordinators (me and KP - see details under the Coordinators above) and a few members of the Smokespotter group.
We are starting the season with a new Smokespotter on a high point in the Iredale area from where he has a good view of a significant part of the Helidon Hills. I delivered his compass last week, as well as another to one of our group on the edge of the Toowoomba range (he had been using a hiking compass till now). These compasses were part of a set of ten new Silva bearing compasses given to the Smokespotters by the Lockyer Valley Regional Council.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Smoke in the Spring Creek, Adare, Vinegar Hill and Ringwood areas - Saturday 15 December
The smoke in the Spring Creek, Adare, Vinegar Hill and Ringwood areas today (Saturday 15 December) is coming from a controlled burn at the Spring Creek jail. The Gatton Springdale Rural Fire Brigade was in attendance at 10.00am this morning.
There was a fire in the Spring Creek jail land last weekend, though on that occasion some of the Smokspotters lost a lot of time in identifying the location. This was because:
It was not until the next morning, when the smoke was still thick in the area, that the source was identified as the jail lands.
Today the Current Bushfire Incidents web page again showed a Permitted Burn at the corner of Millers Road and the Gatton-Esk Road.
The X shows the approximate location as identified by Smokespotter bearings (see image below for a more accurate location), the XX shows the location of the nearest point of the fire to the indicated location.
Here's a picture of the situation this morning (Saturday 15 October) plotted on a Google Earth base - you can click on the image to see a larger version, but unless you open it in a new window you won't be able to see the text at the same time:
The area outlined in yellow is where the fire was burning. Our bearings (red lines) were within one km of the nearest fire - not bad considering that James W's bearing was taken over a distance of 15km (the other was only 6km) and the smoke was "smeared out" by a northeasterly wind. The expensive bearing compasses we use are well worth the money. In fact the projection of James' bearing was right on the fire. It was my bearing over 6km that was off the mark; I'll blame the wind.
The place pin on the right shows where the Queensland Rural Fire Service's Current Bushfire Incidents map located the permitted burn - over 3km from the nearest point of the burnt area.
I've made efforts in the past to have the Smokespotter Coordinators notified when there is going to be a planned burn on the jail lands because of both their proximity to the Lockyer National Park and the unreliability of the Permitted Burn locations on the Current Bushfire Incidents web page (which means that we waste Smokespotters' time in trying to fix the location of sighted smoke). Clearly I haven't yet found the key person who will see that this happens, but I'll keep trying.
There was a fire in the Spring Creek jail land last weekend, though on that occasion some of the Smokspotters lost a lot of time in identifying the location. This was because:
- the cross bearings we obtained on the wide front of smoke suggested that it was in either the eastern edge of the Lockyer National Park or in the land owned by the jail;
- the Queensland Rural Fire Service Current Bushfire Incidents web page showed a permitted burn with fire crews in attendance at the junction of Millers Road and the Gatton-Esk Road (the jail is at the other end of Millers Road). This was approximately 5 km from where we had identified the fire location (were our bearings wrong?);
- when we were unable to contact the Grantham Rural Brigade First Officer we contacted the Deputy, who had not been informed any controlled burn in that area (though from our bearings the fire was in, or on the edge of, the Grantham Rural Fire Brigade area);
- we then spent more time trying to find Smokespotters who could give us a better bearing on the smoke, but without being able to improve the location.
It was not until the next morning, when the smoke was still thick in the area, that the source was identified as the jail lands.
Today the Current Bushfire Incidents web page again showed a Permitted Burn at the corner of Millers Road and the Gatton-Esk Road.
The X shows the approximate location as identified by Smokespotter bearings (see image below for a more accurate location), the XX shows the location of the nearest point of the fire to the indicated location.
Here's a picture of the situation this morning (Saturday 15 October) plotted on a Google Earth base - you can click on the image to see a larger version, but unless you open it in a new window you won't be able to see the text at the same time:
The place pin on the right shows where the Queensland Rural Fire Service's Current Bushfire Incidents map located the permitted burn - over 3km from the nearest point of the burnt area.
I've made efforts in the past to have the Smokespotter Coordinators notified when there is going to be a planned burn on the jail lands because of both their proximity to the Lockyer National Park and the unreliability of the Permitted Burn locations on the Current Bushfire Incidents web page (which means that we waste Smokespotters' time in trying to fix the location of sighted smoke). Clearly I haven't yet found the key person who will see that this happens, but I'll keep trying.
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