A worsening fire outlook and a 50% chance of an El Nino developing in September

It looks more and more like we are heading into a bad bushfire season.

In our end of the Helidon Hills (Vinegar Hill locality, 5km north of Gatton in the edge of teh Hills) it has been the driest January to June period of the last seven years (we've only been keeping records that long).

In the three months to the end of June we had only 77mm, and in July we had only 2mm.  Quite a few mature trees are showing patches of dead leaves.

In fact the southern two-thirds of Queensland has experienced an extended period of drier than normal conditions according to the 2014 North Australia Bushfire Seasonal Outlook (this link opens a pdf of the report from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC).

According to the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook "Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology along with recent observations continue to indicate El Niño is likely (70 per cent chance) to develop later this year." - suggesting a dry summer and high bushfire risk.

Chances of exceeding the Mean Maximum Temperature [Bushfire Seasonal Outlook Report]

As of the end of July the areas of Above Normal Bushfire Potential for the 2014/20 bushfire season had already been assessed for northern and central Queensland with fairly large areas being rated as having above normal potential.  Regions of South East and  Western Queensland south of latitude  S25º were scheduled to be assessed during the Southern Australia Bushfire Season workshop in August.

 I'm not sure whether or not that assessment has yet been released, but the ABC has published an article this week which predicts that Queensland could be in for one of its worst bushfire seasons in five years.  Here's some of what they said:

"The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has shown a 50 per cent chance of El Nino weather patterns starting in September, which could potentially see increased fire danger periods, increased fire incidents and an extended fire season. During the last El Nino weather event in 2009, there were 16,000 vegetation fires - a 30 per cent increase compared to the 12,5000 fires seen in an average season. The prediction came as the state launched its official bushfire season today - about three weeks earlier than usual.

 "This weather pattern would mean above average temperatures and below average winter/spring rainfall which would result in increased grass and forest fuel loads," Mr Johnson said. He said people in high danger areas need to have an emergency plan in place. Currently, more than 60 per cent of the state is drought declared, and very dry and hot conditions are creating ideal conditions for fire. Since April, more than 4,900 hazard reduction burns covering in excess of 421,000 hectares have been performed."

Read the whole article here.  I'll keep an eye out for the Above Normal Bushfire Potential for southern Queensland and will post a summary here when I see it.

A couple of days ago I posted an article on our blog about living with and understanding fire risk.  Some time in the next few weeks I'll post something there on our strategy for preparing with and dealing with fire - we are in the process of concurrently updating our strategy and putting it into effect.

Some statistics on this Smokespotter website

I just had to go into the "back" of the website to check on something and noticed the stats counter for the site.

This Helidon Hills Smokespotters website has been online for just over 18 months (since September 2012).  In that time there have been 4,509 hits on the site - not bad considering that this is a site serving a relatively small area - maybe 350 square kilometres - with a very low population level (due to the fact that around 9,000 ha is National Park and the remainder is largely rugged country with relatively large properties).

Clearly the site serves a need, but more than that, it shows that the Smokespotter Group serves a need within the larger community.

Personally I think that another statistic is worth mentioning.  Over the last 12 months there have been very few reports of smoke in the Helidon Hills.  This period includes one of the driest winters and early summers on record, with very high fire danger levels - and during that period there were only a few smoke sightings reported, and these were either outside our area or were of very short duration suggesting a permitted (or at least closely controlled) burn.  I think there were probably two reasons for this - first, the community in general took the fire risk very seriously and, second, the presence and effectiveness of the Smokespotter Group have become more widely known and this may have deterred some who could previously have risked burning off on the assumption that they would never get caught.