In our end of the Helidon Hills (Vinegar Hill locality, 5km north of Gatton in the edge of teh Hills) it has been the driest January to June period of the last seven years (we've only been keeping records that long).
In the three months to the end of June we had only 77mm, and in July we had only 2mm. Quite a few mature trees are showing patches of dead leaves.
In fact the southern two-thirds of Queensland has experienced an extended period of drier than normal conditions according to the 2014 North Australia Bushfire Seasonal Outlook (this link opens a pdf of the report from the Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC).
According to the Bushfire Seasonal Outlook "Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology along with recent observations continue to indicate El Niño is likely (70 per cent chance) to develop later this year." - suggesting a dry summer and high bushfire risk.
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| Chances of exceeding the Mean Maximum Temperature [Bushfire Seasonal Outlook Report] |
I'm not sure whether or not that assessment has yet been released, but the ABC has published an article this week which predicts that Queensland could be in for one of its worst bushfire seasons in five years. Here's some of what they said:
"The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre has shown a 50 per cent chance of El Nino weather patterns starting in September, which could potentially see increased fire danger periods, increased fire incidents and an extended fire season. During the last El Nino weather event in 2009, there were 16,000 vegetation fires - a 30 per cent increase compared to the 12,5000 fires seen in an average season. The prediction came as the state launched its official bushfire season today - about three weeks earlier than usual.
"This weather pattern would mean above average temperatures and below average winter/spring rainfall which would result in increased grass and forest fuel loads," Mr Johnson said. He said people in high danger areas need to have an emergency plan in place. Currently, more than 60 per cent of the state is drought declared, and very dry and hot conditions are creating ideal conditions for fire. Since April, more than 4,900 hazard reduction burns covering in excess of 421,000 hectares have been performed."
Read the whole article here. I'll keep an eye out for the Above Normal Bushfire Potential for southern Queensland and will post a summary here when I see it.
A couple of days ago I posted an article on our blog about living with and understanding fire risk. Some time in the next few weeks I'll post something there on our strategy for preparing with and dealing with fire - we are in the process of concurrently updating our strategy and putting it into effect.
