There have been increasing indications that there is likely to be a major El Niño event this year. A week ago scientists from the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that we are in an El Niño event, reporting that:
El Niño has arrived, it’s getting stronger, and it’s not about to go away soon. And already there are rumblings that this could be a big one. El Niño in Australia means warmer temperatures, and sometimes, but not always, drier conditions.
In 2014, some climatologists thought a big El Niño
might have been on the cards. Ultimately, after some vigorous early
warming in the Pacific, conditions only touched on El Niño thresholds.
This year, with an event already established, climatologists are
suggesting the odds are rising of an El Niño rivalling the record events
of 1982 and 1997. [read the full article here].
In The Conversation today CSIRO and UNSW researchers pointed to indications that the 2015-2016 El Niño event will be a major one:
The anticipation is growing that this year’s newly formed El Niño will turn out to be very big. All climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are currently predicting a strong event later this year.
In terms of intensity and the growth rate up to July, the 2015 El
Niño is second only to corresponding time of the 1997 event, and looks
set to outpower the 1982 event. However, the eventual intensity of the
2015 El Niño is still hard to predict. What seems more certain is a La
Niña in 2016.
For Australia, the extent and strength of the impact of the 2015 El
Niño to a large extent depends on whether there is a concurrent positive
Indian Ocean Dipole. In 2014, there was no positive Indian Ocean
Dipole. To date, most models
are predicting a positive dipole this year, raising the prospect of a
strong El Niño preceded by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and followed
by a La Niña event – exactly as occurred in 1982-84 and 1997-99
For Australia, the impacts of this sequence could be significant, as
attested by the devastating Ash Wednesday bushfire in 1983 over southern
Australia and the floods that hit the country’s northeast in early
1984.[read the full article here].
All of this suggests that we are in for a bad fire season, after some years of very little fire activity in the Helidon Hills.
If you haven't already done your fire season preparations now is definitely the time to do them. And if you are a smokespotter, make sure you have your compass handy as well as your list of phone numbers for Coordinators.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Sunday, May 24, 2015
Bushfire burn-off targets to be replaced with risk-based strategy in Victoria
Nice to see some common sense being applied to bushfire risk reduction in Victoria.
Land most at risk of dangerous bushfires will be targeted for burning during the off-season under a new risk-based strategy for Victoria's fuel reduction burns.
The new policy would dump the existing program of 5 per cent burning of public land every year, which was recommended by a royal commission in the wake of the Black Saturday bushfires.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bushfire-burnoff-targets-to-be-replaced-with-riskbased-strategy-20150521-gh6mif.html
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
LVRC spends $10,000 on maintenance of fire trails
Remember the 2012 bushfire that burned out an area that extended from the whole length of Wallers Road along Seventeen Mile Road, and down to Adare, taking in parts of Sandy Creek and Vinegar Hill as well?
One of the problems that the fire fighters had was that there aren't enough containment lines in many parts of the Hills. In the aftermath of the fire I recall the Lockyer Valley Regional Council making much of the fact that they were going to make a significant allocation for maintenance of fire trails.
I never did hear any more about it - maybe it got spent, maybe not. Maybe I should read the Gatton Star more often.
Anyway, my ears pricked up when I was browsing through some Council Minutes (yeah, I should get out more) and saw the words "fire trails maintenance budget" and $10,000 in close proximity.
It wasn't what I thought. The money was being "reallocated" to track maintenance for the course of the Lockyer 300 Off Road Rally at Mulgowie in October this year, at the request of the Brisbane Sporting Car Club. Because the track is "predominantly along the fire trail in the Mulgowie area".
Bet you would have imagined that the fire trails maintenance budget would be spend on the highest priority areas, where high fire risk coupled with inadequate fire trail maintenance come together. That's not how it's done in the Lockyer.
Anyway, if you want to see where your fire trail maintenance went, just head on out to Mulgowie on 16-18 October this year. And if they want to charge you for admission, tell them that as a ratepayer you have already paid them $10,000, and may be paying more from your own pocket if your property burns down for lack of fire trail maintenance.
If you want to see what kind of sport this "off road rally" is, get a look at http://www.chapmansoffroadracing.com/. It's really intelligent stuff.
Sort of like the street sprints in the bush. In fact, maybe they could move the street sprints out there.
Here's the text of it, and remind me to send some flowers to Tanya Milligan for voting against it.
One of the problems that the fire fighters had was that there aren't enough containment lines in many parts of the Hills. In the aftermath of the fire I recall the Lockyer Valley Regional Council making much of the fact that they were going to make a significant allocation for maintenance of fire trails.
I never did hear any more about it - maybe it got spent, maybe not. Maybe I should read the Gatton Star more often.
Anyway, my ears pricked up when I was browsing through some Council Minutes (yeah, I should get out more) and saw the words "fire trails maintenance budget" and $10,000 in close proximity.
It wasn't what I thought. The money was being "reallocated" to track maintenance for the course of the Lockyer 300 Off Road Rally at Mulgowie in October this year, at the request of the Brisbane Sporting Car Club. Because the track is "predominantly along the fire trail in the Mulgowie area".
Bet you would have imagined that the fire trails maintenance budget would be spend on the highest priority areas, where high fire risk coupled with inadequate fire trail maintenance come together. That's not how it's done in the Lockyer.
Anyway, if you want to see where your fire trail maintenance went, just head on out to Mulgowie on 16-18 October this year. And if they want to charge you for admission, tell them that as a ratepayer you have already paid them $10,000, and may be paying more from your own pocket if your property burns down for lack of fire trail maintenance.
If you want to see what kind of sport this "off road rally" is, get a look at http://www.chapmansoffroadracing.com/. It's really intelligent stuff.
Sort of like the street sprints in the bush. In fact, maybe they could move the street sprints out there.
Here's the text of it, and remind me to send some flowers to Tanya Milligan for voting against it.
17
DECEMBER 2014
Page 341
14.2 2014 Request for
Financial Support - Lockyer 300
Date: 11 December 2014
Author: Jason Harm, Manager
Regional Development
Responsible Officer: Mark Piorkowski, Executive
Manager Planning & Development Services
File No: Formal Papers
Summary:
The Lockyer 300 Off Road Rally has been held
in Mulgowie yearly for the past three years and this event is regionally
significant and attracts in excess of 1000 spectators each year. This event is
scheduled to occur in 2015 on the 16-18 October, and now Brisbane Sporting Car
Club has approached Council for additional $10,000 funding to be used towards
general maintenance of the fire trails in the Mulgowie area and maintenance on
the track for the 2015 event.
Officer’s
Recommendation:
THAT with
respect to the correspondence received from Brisbane Sporting Car Club
requesting $10,000 for track maintenance, Council resolves to approve the
reallocation of the fire trails maintenance budget to cover the $10,000
contribution in lieu of cash in support of the Lockyer 300 Off Road Rally for
maintenance of the track which is predominately along the fire trail in the
Mulgowie area.
And
further;
THAT
Council and the Brisbane Sporting Car Club enter into a new three year
agreement
with the local land holders to ensure the event will proceed for the next three
years, from 2015.
RESOLUTION
THAT with
respect to the correspondence received from Brisbane Sporting Car Club
requesting $10,000 for track maintenance, Council resolves to approve the
reallocation of the fire trails maintenance budget to cover the $10,000
contribution in lieu of cash in support of the Lockyer 300 Off Road Rally for
maintenance of the track which is predominately along the fire trail in the
Mulgowie area. Subject to clarification on the indemnity in respect of
liability and the management of spectator movement.
Further;
THAT
Council and the Brisbane Sporting Car Club enter into a new three year
agreement
with the local land holders to ensure the event will proceed for the next three
years, from 2015.
And
further;
THAT
Council forward correspondence to the Brisbane Sporting Car Club requesting a
meeting to further clarify Councils issues on matters raised in regard to the
Lockyer 300.
Moved By:
Cr Pingel Seconded By: Cr McLean
Resolution
Number: 3809
ORDINARY
COUNCIL
MEETING
MINUTES
17
DECEMBER 2014
Page 342
CARRIED
6/1
Voting
For the
Motion: Crs PF Friend, JH Holstein, SJ Jones, JM McDonald, DP Pingel and KMcLMcLean.
Against the Motion: Cr TM Milligan.
Friday, January 9, 2015
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Aspects of house design for bushfire safety
What great bushfire weather! So good to feel all the dampness around and see so much green. It was totally nervewracking going through those weeks of hot and dry weather and wondering when/if a fire would pop up.
2014 was quite a different year in terms of the need for Smokespotter reporting. Definitely the quietest year we have had since the network started. And yet it wasn't the year with least bushfire risk.
Is the community getting more careful about when and whether to light a fire? Is there more awareness of the risks of fire getting out of control. Has spreading knowledge of the quick reaction of Smokespotters to sightings of smoke had some effect? Or a combination of those and other factors?
Let's just be thankful that it was quiet, and hope that 2015 is going to be similar.
Here's a link to an article in today's edition of The Conversation which talks about aspects of house design / retrofit that improve bushfire safety, and some myths about the high costs involved.
Stay safe.
Oh, and please have a look at the No Motocross @ Adare website and sign the petition - here or via the link on the website.
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