Fire Danger Ratings: an embarrassment of riches, or just confusion?

You can see the Forest Fire Danger Rating for Friday 25 October on the right.  The whole of the Lockyer Valley Region is rated Low-Moderate.

The Grassland Fire Danger Rating for Friday is available by clicking on the Legend on the right, or by going to the Emergency Information - Queensland website.  You'll have to change a "layer" setting to display the FDR info on the map (click the Layer tab, then click the Real Time tab, and click on the toggle beside the Fire Danger Rating label).

Their Grassland Fire Danger Rating map looks like this:

A much nicer image than the one on the right which is from the Rural Fire Service Website (though it has no more FDR information in it), and you might notice that the area west of Toowoomba is yellow, which indicates a Very High Grassland Fire Danger Rating - rather than the High Forest Fire Danger Rating in the map to the right.  There are good reasons for the differences between Forest and Grassland ratings which I won't go into here, but so far I haven't found any good explanation of which one you should be looking at.  I guess that if your property (and most surrounding properties) is mostly grassland then the Grassland rating would be most relevant.

However there are plans to adopt the BOM fire danger rating system in Queensland.  We are one of only two areas in Australia which have not made the transition, the NT being the other one.

You can see the BOM fire danger rating here:  http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/bushfire.shtml, and at the time of writing (10.22pm on Thursday night) it was High. But this was the fire danger rating for the whole of the Southeast Coast Region - the BOM doesn't give fine-grained fire danger ratings like the Rural Fire Service does.

If anyone can give me an explanation of when one should look at the Forest Fire Danger Rating rather than the Grassland Fire Danger Rating, and how these differ from the BOM Fire Danger Ratings I'd be grateful.  Feel free to use my smokespotter email: smokespotters [at] gmail [dot] com.

How much does Australia rely on volunteer firefighters?

For those of us who live in the Helidon Hills it is clear that we are heavily reliant on the Rural Fire Brigade volunteers for our safety in fire events. But how about the rest of the country?

Remembering that Australia has one of the most urbanised populations in the world, you wouldn't expect the reliance to be all that high, right?

Wrong!

"... almost 2 million Australians [rely] largely on volunteer fire brigades to protect them and A$500 billion in assets."

This is from a Sydney Morning Herald article on a report by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research.

Has bushfire risk increased due to climate change?

That's a pretty topical question, albeit one that has been around for a few years now.

Roger Jones, a Professorial Research Fellow at Victoria University, has published an article in today's issue of The Conversation which reports on research work which looks at the evidence.

"In research I did with colleagues earlier this year we looked at the Fire Danger Index calculated by the Bureau of Meteorology, and compared how it changed compared to temperature over time in Victoria.

South-east Australia saw a temperature change of about 0.8C when we compared temperatures before 1996 and after 1997. We know that it got drier after 1997 too.


We then compared this data to the Forest Fire Danger Index, to see if it showed the same pattern. We analysed fire data from nine stations in Victoria and did a non-linear analysis.


We found that fire danger in Victoria increased by over a third after 1996, compared to 1972-1996. The current level of fire danger is equivalent to the worst case projected for 2050, from an earlier analysis for the Climate Institute.


While it’s impossible to say categorically that the situation is the same in NSW, we know that these changes are generally applicable across south-east Australia. So it’s likely to be a similar case: fire and climate change are linked.

You can read the whole article here.

Are you ready?

There's no doubt that the bushfire season is upon us.  The bush and the climate in the Hills are primed for fire.

The big question is ARE YOU READY?

Here's a different way of asking the same question, courtesy of the the Warrandyte Community Association




This video is starting to go viral around Australia, if not more widely, with over 7,000 views and a spot on ABC Radio National's Bush Telegraph.  I can see why.

Spread the message.  It doesn't matter if you substitute Vinegar Hill, Buaraba Creek, Helidon or wherever, the message is highly relevant, and will only become more relevant as the summer bears down on us.

Very High Fire Danger - Monday 14 October

The fire danger in the Lockyer Valley Region today is Very High (25-50).

Winds in Gatton are currently (7.25am) 31.5km/h gusting to 42.6km/h.

If you are thinking of lighting up a permitted burn today, check your permit conditions.  It is likely that the Fire Danger Rating and wind speed conditions on your permit preclude lighting up under these conditions.  If in doubt, check with FireComm (the number is on your permit).

Remember that when you do light up a permitted burn in the Helidon Hills, let one of the Smokespotter Coordinators know (details HERE) as well as informing FireComm.

Stay safe.

Reducing Bushfire Risk to Property

Just read a very informative post on today's issue of The Conversation by Owen Price, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires at University of Wollongong.

It is well worth reading the whole article as it deals with what the scientific evidence actually says about reducing the risk of house loss from bushfire, but among the interesting things he says are the following:

"In the Sydney region, 40% of all bushfires ignite within 2km of the interface where forest meets houses. This figure rises to 79% if we consider only fires that actually burn to the interface on days of extreme fire weather."

"... it is safe to say that building (and maintaining) houses to the Australian Standard for Construction of Buildings in Bushfire Prone Areas helps, and that householder preparedness makes a big difference. But most households are poorly prepared."

 "Bushfire risk reduction is most effective in and around houses and householders themselves are the ones who can make the biggest difference. But the only way to eliminate risk entirely is to move the houses away from vegetation altogether."

 Given the weather we are experiencing at this early stage in the fire season, it is a timely reminder.

Don't forget that you can find the day's Forest Fire Danger Rating for the whole of the Lockyer Valley Region in the sidebar on this website.  On the odd occasion when I am unable to update it, clicking on the old map will bring up the day's map for the whole of Queensland, with an inset for Southeast Queensland.  Please share this web address with your friends in the Region.

 
 

Fire Weather Warning - Monday 7 October 2013

Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for all of the Southeast Coast Forecast District including the Lockyer Valley Region.

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises that fires may be unpredictable, uncontrollable and fast-moving.
 

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:

• Check your bushfire survival plan - Now.
• Monitor the fire and weather situation in any way you can through www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au, television or radio.
• Call Triple Zero if you see a fire.

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises that if you are in an area of Extreme Fire Danger:

• Leaving is the only option for your survival.
• If you plan to leave finalise your options and leave early on the day.
• A well prepared and well constructed home may not be safe.

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises that if you are in an area of Severe Fire Danger:

• Leaving is the safest option for your survival.
• If you plan to leave finalise your options and leave early on the day.
• Only stay if your home is well prepared and well constructed and you can actively defend it.
• Prepare for the emotional, mental and physical impact of defending your property - if in doubt, leave early.

For information on Fire Bans and how to Prepare. Act. Survive. Visit the Rural Fire Service web page at www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au or call the hotline on 1800 020 440.